2/13/2008 Ron Nehring, CRP Chairman
It’s fun to watch the Democrats desperately trying to spin how everything is so wonderful for their team as we head into the thick of this general election campaign. Lest we allow the pixiedust to have too much of an effect, let’s take a look at some of the major forces that are moving our way in
California and nationally.
Something clearly happened on Senator Clinton’s trip to her coronation as the Democrats’ nominee for President. The limo wheels have come off, and the campaign is in turmoil as managers are fired and new people brought into try to save the day. Barack Obama, a first term Senator from
Illinois who only won his seat when the Republican candidate dropped out in 2004, continues to give the Senator a run for the money.
Meanwhile, National Journal just rated all 100 Senators and found the most liberal to be: Barack Obama. Now, with Ted Kennedy in the Senate that’s a tough title to claim, yet somehow Obama managed to get to the left of the Massachusetts Senator. Left wing activists have managed to pull both Obama and Clinton so far to the extreme that primary voters in the remaining states have a choice between the far left and the very far left.
On the Republican side, the contest for the Republican nomination is over in everything but name. Senator McCain will be the Republican nominee, with the race wrapped up early, providing time necessary to build a national structure and link up with party organizations for a united front. Meanwhile, Senators Obama and Clinton will continue spending millions of dollars tearing each other up, just as Republicans are uniting behind Senator McCain.
In
California , the state’s most popular elected official, Governor Schwarzenegger, is squarely behind the soon-to-be Republican nominee. With Senator McCain pledging to compete vigorously in
California , this constitutes a one-two punch that should have the Democrats concerned. The Electoral College map is fundamentally altered if
California is in play. Simply put, Democrats can’t win without the
Golden
State . All the Ohio’s, Pennsylvania’s, and
Florida ’s can’t change this fact.
Meanwhile, our party is fresh off a historic 100% win rate in the February 5 primary election. Despite early polling showing Republicans favored Proposition 93 and were soft in supporting Propositions 94 – 97, the party’s barrage of mail, phone calls, and broadcast media helped boost Republican support in favor of the party’s position on every measure.
As a result, Don Perata and Fabian Nunez have been given new reasons to dust off their resumes as their effort to game term limits was crushed thanks to the efforts of the California Republican Party and Republican Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, who led the No on 93 effort.
Looking at legislative and congressional races, Democrats have few reasons to be cocky. We have solid Republicans lining up in targeted Assembly, Senate and Congressional races. Tony Strickland is as strong as they come to take Tom McClintock’s Senate seat. Sen. Abel Maldonado is solid. Assemblyman Greg Aghazarian is well positioned in the 5th Senate district and a proven campaigner.
Democrat Congressman Jerry McNerney has every reason to be deeply concerned in his try for a second term in the Republican-leaning 11th district as he faces Republican Dean Andal. I’ve known Dean for years and rarely have I found someone who is as solid on both policy and politics. He’s a serious lawmaker who doubles as an incredibly effective campaigner, organizer, and fundraiser. The strength of Dean’s candidacy is a key factor in the 11th CD being the top Congressional race to watch in the country. McNerney would be a stronger competitor if he had shown a hint of moderation in this Republican-leaning district. Yet, McNerney’s proven himself to be little different than Nancy Pelosi on policy.
It’s a long ball game and we’re still in the early innings, so things may change. Yet the emerging dynamics of 2008 provide a foundation for victory when a united Republican Party meets the Democrats on the electoral battlefield this fall.
http://www.flashreport.org/index.php?doDate=20080212
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